Accelerating Dual Momentum is a tactical asset allocation strategy developed by EngineeredPortfolio.com. They introduced their Accelerating Dual Momentum strategy in mid-2018. It is based on Gary Antonacci's Dual Momentum strategy, with its main difference being that it uses an International Small Caps fund instead of simply an International fund, and is also more reactive to short-term changes due to its shorter look-back time periods.
Accelerating Dual Momentum aims to avoid the S&P 500's worst drawdowns but tracks the index closely during bullish periods. Investors thus get the best of both worlds, they do not miss out on gains during positive market years while being protected during major downturns.
The portfolio is rebalanced once a month and only holds a single ETF at any given time, which makes it very easy to replicate and does not require a lot of time to do so.
Accelerating Dual Momentum picks between 2 equity indices when markets have a positive momentum, namely S&P 500 or an International Small Caps fund, depending on which performs best. If neither are positive, the portfolio will invest in Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
1 August 1975 – 17 April 2024
Compare with
S&P 500 (US Large Cap) (SP500.X)
Performance
- Annualized Return
-
15.84%Accelerating Dual Momentum
-
10.77%S&P 500 (US Large Cap)
- Sharpe Ratio
-
1.18Accelerating Dual Momentum
-
0.68S&P 500 (US Large Cap)
- Maximum Drawdown
-
-35.82%Accelerating Dual Momentum
-
-55.19%S&P 500 (US Large Cap)
Metrics
| Metric | Accelerating Dual Momentum | S&P 500 (US Large Cap) |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Balance | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Final Balance | $12,967,226 | $1,466,133 |
| Returns [View more details] | ||
| Month-To-Date | -4.31% | -4.31% |
| Year-To-Date | 5.64% | 5.64% |
| 3M | 5.33% | 5.33% |
| 6M | 17.94% | 15.62% |
| Annualized Return (3Y) | -1.51% | 7.84% |
| Annualized Return (5Y) | 6.11% | 13.36% |
| Annualized Return (All) | 15.84% | 10.77% |
| Risk [View more details] | ||
| Annual Volatility | 13.19% | 17.29% |
| Max Drawdown | -35.82% | -55.19% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.18 | 0.68 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.69 | 0.95 |
| Adjusted Sortino (S/√2) | 1.2 | 0.67 |
- Initial balance: The amount of starting capital used to invest in the asset or portfolio. In this case, we're starting with a $10,000 investment on August 1975.
- Final balance: The amount of capital we've accrued over time as of April 2024.
- Annual return: Also known as annualized return, or CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), measures how much an investment has increased on average each year, during a specific time period. The time period in this case is approximately 49 year(s). Even a small difference in return can have a big impact on the final balance over a long period of time.
- Annual volatility: Basically indicates how much, in percentage points, the investment can deviate from its annual return, under most circumstances. An investment with an annual return of 5% and an annual volatility of 10% would indicate returns from approximately -5% to 15% most of the time. A lower volatility is usually preferred to ensure more steady returns over time.
- Best year: The best performance attained over its lifetime in a given year.
- Worst year: The worst performance undergone over its lifetime in a given year.
- Max drawdown: The largest percentage drop from a peak to a trough of an asset or portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period.
- Sharpe Ratio: The Sharpe ratio measures the performance of an investment compared to a risk-free asset, after adjusting for its risk. A Sharpe Ratio above 1 is considered good.
- Sortino Ratio: The Sortino Ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that only penalizes the investment for negative volatility/outcomes, and not for positive volatility. A Sortino Ratio above 1 is considered good.
- Adjusted Sortino Ratio: Sortino Ratio/√2. To allow for comparing the Sortino ratio to the Sharpe ratio, we multiply the risk measure of the Sortino ratio by the square root of 2 (which is the same as dividing the Sortino ratio by the square root of 2).
- Ulcer Index: The Ulcer Index (UI) is a technical indicator that measures downside risk in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines.
- Gain to Pain Ratio: The sum of all returns divided by the absolute value of the sum of all negative returns. In essence, the GPR shows the ratio of net returns to the losses incurred in getting those returns.
Annualized Returns
| Annual Return 1y | Annual Return 3y | Annual Return 5y | Annual Return 10y | Annual Return 20y | Annual Return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerating Dual Momentum | 14.63% | -1.51% | 6.11% | 6.68% | 12.77% | 15.84% |
| S&P 500 (US Large Cap) | 22.67% | 7.84% | 13.36% | 12.39% | 9.82% | 10.77% |
Annual Returns
| Year | Accelerating Dual Momentum | S&P 500 (US Large Cap) | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | -3.21% | -2.18% | |
| 1976 | 18.27% | 22.52% | |
| 1977 | 22.37% | -6.3% | |
| 1978 | 35.57% | 7.69% | |
| 1979 | 10.75% | 18.3% | |
| 1980 | 25.69% | 31.11% | |
| 1981 | -7.47% | -8.55% | |
| 1982 | 26.58% | 19.25% | |
| 1983 | 23.11% | 17.07% | |
| 1984 | 12.78% | 3.67% | |
| 1985 | 44.72% | 22.6% | |
| 1986 | 51.16% | 9.3% | |
| 1987 | 17.37% | 4.69% | |
| 1988 | 29.52% | 16.27% | |
| 1989 | 28.92% | 31.4% | |
| 1990 | -14.14% | -3.35% | |
| 1991 | 28.56% | 30.2% | |
| 1992 | 8.16% | 8.21% | |
| 1993 | 21.18% | 8.81% | |
| 1994 | 11.9% | 0.4% | |
| 1995 | 37.4% | 38.05% | |
| 1996 | 9.91% | 22.5% | |
| 1997 | 33.48% | 33.48% | = |
| 1998 | 12.59% | 28.69% | |
| 1999 | 25.22% | 20.39% | |
| 2000 | -9.4% | -9.74% | |
| 2001 | -18.16% | -11.76% | |
| 2002 | -1.33% | -21.58% | |
| 2003 | 68.13% | 28.18% | |
| 2004 | 36.82% | 10.7% | |
| 2005 | 23.43% | 4.83% | |
| 2006 | 24.13% | 15.85% | |
| 2007 | 9.64% | 5.15% | |
| 2008 | 16.04% | -36.79% | |
| 2009 | 19.04% | 26.35% | |
| 2010 | 18.47% | 15.06% | |
| 2011 | 32.46% | 1.89% | |
| 2012 | 9.62% | 15.99% | |
| 2013 | 18.29% | 32.31% | |
| 2014 | 10.53% | 13.46% | |
| 2015 | -11.99% | 1.23% | |
| 2016 | 2.4% | 12% | |
| 2017 | 23.8% | 21.71% | |
| 2018 | 7.42% | -4.57% | |
| 2019 | 13.12% | 31.22% | |
| 2020 | 21.75% | 18.33% | |
| 2021 | 25.38% | 28.73% | |
| 2022 | -31.94% | -18.18% | |
| 2023 | 17% | 26.18% | |
| 2024 | 5.64% | 5.64% | = |
Accelerating Dual Momentum had 42 positive years and 8 negative years. That's a positive ratio of 84%.
S&P 500 (US Large Cap) had 40 positive years and 10 negative years. That's a positive ratio of 80%.
Accelerating Dual Momentum had a better yearly return 54% of the time compared to S&P 500 (US Large Cap).
Monthly Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -6.3% | -1.8% | 4.7% | 1.6% | -1.1% | -3.2% |
| 1976 | 6.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 2.6% | -0.5% | 2.4% | -2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 18.3% |
| 1977 | 0.8% | 2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | -0.3% | 2.4% | -1.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | -1% | 4.7% | 22.4% |
| 1978 | 1.9% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.2% | -9% | 4.2% | 35.6% |
| 1979 | 0.9% | -1% | 2.3% | -0.9% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 5% | 1.4% | -3.3% | -0.3% | 4.4% | 10.8% |
| 1980 | 8.4% | 0.4% | -9.8% | 14% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | -1% | -3.9% | 25.7% |
| 1981 | -4.4% | -1.8% | 3.8% | -2.6% | -5.1% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -5.7% | -1.4% | 7.7% | 11% | -2.2% | -7.5% |
| 1982 | -1% | -5.3% | 1.6% | 3.3% | -1.7% | -2.4% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 0.3% | 26.6% |
| 1983 | 3.4% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | -3.8% | -0.8% | 1.4% | -0.8% | 3% | 4% | 23.1% |
| 1984 | 3.7% | 0.7% | 6.2% | -1.1% | -8.9% | 1.5% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | -1% | 0.1% | 12.8% |
| 1985 | 7.6% | 1.4% | 0% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 1.1% | -0.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 44.7% |
| 1986 | 3.8% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 7.8% | -2.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 6.3% | -4.2% | -3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 51.2% |
| 1987 | 6.6% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 4.8% | -2.6% | -15% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 17.4% |
| 1988 | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.1% | -0.8% | -1.6% | 0.2% | -3.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5% | 0.6% | 29.5% |
| 1989 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | -0.6% | 9% | 1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 28.9% |
| 1990 | -2.1% | -5.9% | -0.3% | -2.7% | 9.3% | -0.7% | -0.4% | -9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | -7.2% | 1.4% | -14.1% |
| 1991 | 7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 4.3% | -4.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | -1.7% | 1% | -4% | 7.6% | 28.6% |
| 1992 | -2.4% | 1.2% | -1.9% | 2.9% | 0.5% | -1.5% | 4.5% | -2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 8.2% |
| 1993 | 0.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | -2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | -2.2% | 1% | -1.1% | 1.2% | 21.2% |
| 1994 | 8.8% | 0.6% | -2.6% | 3.3% | -1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2% | -2.3% | 2.8% | -4% | 1.7% | 11.9% |
| 1995 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 4.2% | -0.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 37.4% |
| 1996 | 3.6% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | -1.4% | -5.4% | -2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.3% | -2.4% | 9.9% |
| 1997 | 6.2% | 1% | -4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 7.9% | -5.2% | 4.8% | -2.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 33.5% |
| 1998 | 1.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 1.3% | -2.1% | 4.3% | -1.4% | -14.1% | 3.9% | -1.7% | 4% | 6.5% | 12.6% |
| 1999 | 3.5% | -3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | -0.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.5% | -0.6% | -1.8% | 1.6% | 5.7% | 25.2% |
| 2000 | -5% | -1.5% | 9.7% | -3.5% | -1.6% | 2% | -3.6% | 1.8% | -5.9% | 2.2% | -6.6% | 3.4% | -9.4% |
| 2001 | 0.3% | 1.8% | -5.2% | -3.5% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -2.2% | 2.4% | -9.8% | 4.7% | -5.1% | -1.8% | -18.2% |
| 2002 | -2.7% | -1.8% | -2.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | -1.8% | -5.3% | -0.3% | 2.3% | -3.7% | -0.9% | 4.5% | -1.3% |
| 2003 | -0.6% | 0.3% | -0.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.6% | 6.5% | 68.1% |
| 2004 | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | -3.4% | -0.9% | 4.7% | -3.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 36.8% |
| 2005 | 2.9% | 4.8% | -0.8% | -1.8% | -1.4% | -0.4% | 5.2% | 4% | 2.5% | -2.2% | 2% | 6.9% | 23.4% |
| 2006 | 7.2% | 0.4% | 5% | 4.3% | -4.6% | -2.4% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2% | 2.8% | 24.1% |
| 2007 | 2.8% | 2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -3.9% | 4.7% | 1.4% | -3.9% | -1.7% | 9.6% |
| 2008 | 2.1% | -0.5% | 2.1% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -9.1% | -2.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | -1.9% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 16% |
| 2009 | -13.1% | -1.5% | 4.1% | -7% | 15% | -1.2% | 8.7% | 5% | 7% | -2.7% | 4.4% | 2% | 19% |
| 2010 | -3.3% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | -8% | 3.7% | -1% | -4.7% | 12.3% | 4.7% | -2.7% | 9.9% | 18.5% |
| 2011 | -0.8% | 3.9% | 0% | 2.9% | -2% | -2.1% | -2.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% | -3.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 32.5% |
| 2012 | 1.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | -0.7% | -6% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.6% | 1.3% | 5% | 9.6% |
| 2013 | 3% | -0.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | -1.3% | 5.2% | -3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | -0.5% | 2.4% | 18.3% |
| 2014 | -3.5% | 4.6% | -0.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | -3.3% | 3.9% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | -0.3% | 10.5% |
| 2015 | -3% | 5.6% | -1.6% | 1% | 0.4% | -2.3% | -2.9% | -6.2% | -0.8% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -1.7% | -12% |
| 2016 | -5% | 2.7% | -0.1% | 1.5% | -0.9% | -2.1% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0% | -3.3% | 3.9% | 2% | 2.4% |
| 2017 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 23.8% |
| 2018 | 4.1% | -3.2% | -2.7% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | -6.9% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| 2019 | 0.4% | 3% | 1.8% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | -1.7% | 2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 13.1% |
| 2020 | -3.8% | -8.5% | 6.9% | 1.2% | -1.8% | 1.2% | 5.9% | 7% | -3.7% | -2.5% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 21.8% |
| 2021 | -0.6% | 4% | 2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | -0.1% | 2.3% | 3% | -4.7% | 7% | -0.8% | 4.6% | 25.4% |
| 2022 | -5.3% | -1.5% | -5.4% | -10.4% | -1.1% | -1.3% | 2.4% | -2.6% | -7.3% | -6% | 7.2% | -5.4% | -31.9% |
| 2023 | 8.1% | -3.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | -3.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 17% |
| 2024 | 1.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | -4.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.6% |
| Pos | 67.3% | 71.4% | 71.4% | 73.5% | 47.9% | 52.1% | 62.5% | 63.3% | 65.3% | 55.1% | 65.3% | 81.6% | 84% |
| Avg | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 16.8% |
Other Return Metrics
| Metric | Accelerating Dual Momentum | S&P 500 (US Large Cap) |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative Return | 129572.26% | 14561.33% |
| Enh Ann Return | 16.76% | 12.19% |
| Best Year | 68.13% | 38.05% |
| Worst Year | -31.94% | -36.79% |
| Best Month | 14.96% | 13.27% |
| Worst Month | -14.97% | -21.73% |
| Best Day | 7.52% | 14.52% |
| Worst Day | -7.25% | -20.46% |
| Win Ratio (Yearly) | 84% | 80% |
| Win Ratio (Quarterly) | 71.43% | 69.9% |
| Win Ratio (Monthly) | 64.79% | 63.18% |
| Win Ratio (Daily) | 58.85% | 54.12% |
Annual Volatility
| Annual Volatility 1y | Annual Volatility 3y | Annual Volatility 5y | Annual Volatility 10y | Annual Volatility 20y | Annual Volatility | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerating Dual Momentum | 13.96% | 16.33% | 17.8% | 15.51% | 15.88% | 13.19% |
| S&P 500 (US Large Cap) | 11.67% | 17.33% | 20.95% | 17.5% | 18.99% | 17.29% |
Sharpe Ratio
| Sharpe Ratio 1y | Sharpe Ratio 3y | Sharpe Ratio 5y | Sharpe Ratio 10y | Sharpe Ratio 20y | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerating Dual Momentum | 1.05 | -0.01 | 0.42 | 0.5 | 0.84 | 1.18 |
| S&P 500 (US Large Cap) | 1.81 | 0.52 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
3-Year Rolling Sharpe Ratio
The rolling Sharpe Ratio gives a clue about the continued consistency or stability of the risk-adjusted returns.
Drawdown Periods
Simply said, a drawdown is the "pain" period experienced by an investor between a peak (new highs) and subsequent valley (a low point before moving higher). In the table below are the fifth largest drawdowns encountered for the portfolios/assets in question.
Accelerating Dual Momentum
| start | valley | end | days | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-10-24 | - | 834 | -35.82% |
| 2000-03-27 | 2002-03-14 | 2003-09-08 | 1260 | -34.74% |
| 1980-11-03 | 1981-09-30 | 1982-10-06 | 702 | -24.61% |
| 2015-05-18 | 2016-01-20 | 2017-08-31 | 836 | -23.99% |
| 2007-07-20 | 2008-07-25 | 2008-12-04 | 503 | -20.76% |
The Accelerating Dual Momentum took approximately 28 months on average to recover from a major drawdown. The longest drawdown lasted 42 months.
S&P 500 (US Large Cap)
| start | valley | end | days | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-10-10 | 2009-03-09 | 2012-08-16 | 1772 | -55.19% |
| 2000-03-27 | 2002-10-09 | 2006-10-26 | 2404 | -47.52% |
| 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-23 | 2020-08-10 | 172 | -33.72% |
| 1987-08-26 | 1987-10-19 | 1989-05-19 | 632 | -33.08% |
| 1980-12-01 | 1982-08-12 | 1982-10-13 | 681 | -25.2% |
The S&P 500 (US Large Cap) took approximately 38 months on average to recover from a major drawdown. The longest drawdown lasted 80 months.
Underwater plot
The underwater plot shows you the drawdown periods on a chart. Whereas the performance chart usually gives you a positive viewpoint, the underwater plot gives you a pessimistic viewpoint. It helps you to visualize downtrends that occurred and how long it took for the portfolio's value to rebound to hit a new high after suffering a loss.
Other Risk Metrics
| Metric | Accelerating Dual Momentum | S&P 500 (US Large Cap) |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.18 | 0.68 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.69 | 0.95 |
| Adjusted Sortino (S/√2) | 1.2 | 0.67 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.44 | 0.2 |
| Omega Ratio | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Gain to Pain Ratio | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| Winckel Ratio | 62 | 60 |
| Ulcer Index | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Kelly Criterion | 11.95% | 6.73% |
| Skew | -0.34 | -0.65 |
| Kurtosis | 6.86 | 21.76 |
End of: