In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio

New York Stock Exchange
USD

The In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio is a simple, lazy portfolio created by Fulvio Marchese.

Its allocation consists of 5 asset classes.

28 April 1992  –  24 July 2024

Performance

Annualized Return
7.76%
Sharpe Ratio
0.95
Maximum Drawdown
-24.78%

Metrics

Metric In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio
Initial Balance $10,000
Final Balance $111,388
Returns   [View more details]
Month-To-Date 0.83%
Year-To-Date 7.88%
3M 6.77%
6M 7.99%
Annual Return (3Y) 3.35%
Annual Return (5Y) 7.56%
Annual Return (All) 7.76%
Risk   [View more details]
Annual Volatility 8.27%
Max Drawdown -24.78%
Sharpe Ratio 0.95
Sortino Ratio 1.35
Adjusted Sortino (S/√2) 0.95

  • Initial balance: The amount of starting capital used to invest in the asset or portfolio. In this case, we're starting with a $10,000 investment on April 1992.
  • Final balance: The amount of capital we've accrued over time as of July 2024.
  • Annual return: Also known as annualized return, or CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), measures how much an investment has increased on average each year, during a specific time period. The time period in this case is approximately 32 year(s). Even a small difference in return can have a big impact on the final balance over a long period of time.
  • Annual volatility: Basically indicates how much, in percentage points, the investment can deviate from its annual return, under most circumstances. An investment with an annual return of 5% and an annual volatility of 10% would indicate returns from approximately -5% to 15% most of the time. A lower volatility is usually preferred to ensure more steady returns over time.
  • Best year: The best performance attained over its lifetime in a given year.
  • Worst year: The worst performance undergone over its lifetime in a given year.
  • Max drawdown: The largest percentage drop from a peak to a trough of an asset or portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period.
  • Sharpe Ratio: The Sharpe ratio measures the performance of an investment compared to a risk-free asset, after adjusting for its risk. A Sharpe Ratio above 1 is considered good.
  • Sortino Ratio: The Sortino Ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that only penalizes the investment for negative volatility/outcomes, and not for positive volatility. A Sortino Ratio above 1 is considered good.
  • Adjusted Sortino Ratio: Sortino Ratio/√2. To allow for comparing the Sortino ratio to the Sharpe ratio, we multiply the risk measure of the Sortino ratio by the square root of 2 (which is the same as dividing the Sortino ratio by the square root of 2).
  • Ulcer Index: The Ulcer Index (UI) is a technical indicator that measures downside risk in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines.
  • Gain to Pain Ratio: The sum of all returns divided by the absolute value of the sum of all negative returns. In essence, the GPR shows the ratio of net returns to the losses incurred in getting those returns.

Annualized Returns

Annual Return 1y Annual Return 3y Annual Return 5y Annual Return 10y Annual Return 20y Annual Return
In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio 12.99% 3.35% 7.56% 6.85% 7.41% 7.76%

Annual Returns

Year In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio
1992 8.22%
1993 10.32%
1994 -2%
1995 24.47%
1996 10.17%
1997 15.76%
1998 14.57%
1999 9.84%
2000 -0.1%
2001 -1.01%
2002 -0.74%
2003 17.6%
2004 7.73%
2005 5.28%
2006 10.87%
2007 8.8%
2008 -12.67%
2009 15.59%
2010 13.78%
2011 4.98%
2012 9.92%
2013 11.21%
2014 7.46%
2015 -0.79%
2016 7.65%
2017 12.17%
2018 -2.67%
2019 19.75%
2020 15.37%
2021 10.35%
2022 -13.98%
2023 15.49%
2024 7.88%

In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio had 25 positive years and 8 negative years. That's a positive ratio of 76%.

Monthly Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
1992 - - - 0.9% 1% -0.2% 3.1% -1% 1.4% -0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 8.2%
1993 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% -0.4% 2.1% 1% 0.7% 1.6% -0.2% 1.3% -0.8% 0.9% 10.3%
1994 1.4% -1.6% -2.6% -0.2% 0.7% -1.3% 1.7% 2.1% -1.1% 0.4% -1.9% 0.6% -2%
1995 1.6% 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 2.9% 1.9% 2% 1.1% 2.2% 0.1% 2.8% 1% 24.5%
1996 2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% -0.2% -2.4% 1.5% 2.8% 1.3% 3.6% -0.9% 10.2%
1997 2% 0.5% -2.5% 2.3% 3.8% 2.2% 4.4% -2% 3.5% -1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 15.8%
1998 1.3% 3% 2.6% 1.1% -1.5% 2.1% -1.1% -6.9% 4.5% 3.2% 2.9% 3% 14.6%
1999 1.7% -2.4% 1.7% 2.5% -1.9% 2.1% -1.8% -0.5% 0.6% 2.9% 1.4% 3.4% 9.8%
2000 -2.1% 1.9% 2.5% -2.4% -1.4% 3.2% -0.9% 3.7% -1.8% -0.8% -3.4% 1.7% -0.1%
2001 2.2% -3.9% -3% 3.6% 0.8% -0.4% -0.1% -1.9% -2.2% 1.2% 2.4% 0.7% -1%
2002 -0.1% 0.1% 1.6% -1.1% 0.6% -2.7% -2.8% 1.7% -2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 0.2% -0.7%
2003 -1% -0.6% 0.1% 4% 4.6% 0.1% -0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1% 3.3% 17.6%
2004 1% 1.1% 0.6% -3.1% 0.5% 1.1% -1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 7.7%
2005 -1.3% 0.9% -1.2% -0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% -1.3% 2.6% 1% 5.3%
2006 2.5% 0% 0.8% 1.7% -1.6% -0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 0.9% 2% 2.2% 0% 10.9%
2007 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3% 1% -1.1% -1% 1.6% 2.9% 1.9% -1.3% 0.5% 8.8%
2008 -0.5% -0.5% -0.8% 1.3% 0.4% -3.2% -0.2% -0.1% -5% -9.4% 0.4% 4.8% -12.7%
2009 -4.3% -5.2% 4% 4.1% 3.6% -0.1% 4.6% 2.1% 3% -0.9% 4.7% -0.4% 15.6%
2010 -0.9% 2% 2.7% 2.1% -3.2% -1.2% 2.9% -0.6% 4.6% 2.2% 0% 2.8% 13.8%
2011 0.4% 2.2% 0.2% 3% -0.1% -1.2% 0.7% -0.7% -4.5% 5.6% -0.3% -0.2% 5%
2012 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% -3.2% 2.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% -1% 0.3% 0.2% 9.9%
2013 2.2% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% -0.2% -2.3% 3.4% -1.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1% 0.9% 11.2%
2014 -0.6% 3% -0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% -1.4% 2.5% -2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 7.5%
2015 0.8% 1.3% -0.5% -0% 0.5% -1.4% 0.4% -2.6% -1% 3.6% -0.6% -1.2% -0.8%
2016 -1.6% 1.5% 3.5% 1% -0% 2% 2.2% -0.4% 0.2% -1.7% 0.1% 0.8% 7.7%
2017 1.5% 2.3% -0% 1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% 12.2%
2018 2.2% -2.4% -0.6% -0.4% 1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 1.6% -0.2% -3.7% 1.2% -3.1% -2.7%
2019 4.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% -2.3% 4.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 19.8%
2020 1.3% -3% -6% 6.7% 2.9% 1.6% 4.2% 2.7% -2.1% -1.2% 5.3% 2.8% 15.4%
2021 -0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 3.1% 1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% -2.9% 3.4% -0.8% 2.1% 10.4%
2022 -3.7% -0.9% 0.3% -5.7% -0% -4.5% 4.7% -3.3% -6% 2.9% 4.7% -2.6% -14%
2023 5% -2.8% 3.3% 0.8% -0.5% 2.6% 2% -1.2% -3.6% -1% 6.4% 4% 15.5%
2024 0.2% 1.9% 1.7% -2.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.8% - - - - - 7.9%
Pos 65.6% 67.7% 68.8% 69.7% 63.6% 54.5% 66.7% 59.4% 56.3% 65.6% 78.1% 81.3% 75.8%
Avg 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 1% 0.3% -0% 0.7% 1.4% 1% 7.9%

Other Return Metrics

Metric In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio
Cumulative Return 1013.88%
Enh Ann Return 8.09%
Best Year 24.47%
Worst Year -13.98%
Best Month 6.7%
Worst Month -9.39%
Best Day 4.34%
Worst Day -5.05%
Win Ratio (Yearly) 75.76%
Win Ratio (Quarterly) 70.77%
Win Ratio (Monthly) 66.49%
Win Ratio (Daily) 55.37%

Annual Volatility

Annual Volatility 1y Annual Volatility 3y Annual Volatility 5y Annual Volatility 10y Annual Volatility 20y Annual Volatility
In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio 7.57% 9.58% 10.56% 8.6% 8.77% 8.27%

Sharpe Ratio

Sharpe Ratio 1y Sharpe Ratio 3y Sharpe Ratio 5y Sharpe Ratio 10y Sharpe Ratio 20y Sharpe Ratio
In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio 1.65 0.39 0.75 0.82 0.86 0.95

3-Year Rolling Sharpe Ratio

The rolling Sharpe Ratio gives a clue about the continued consistency or stability of the risk-adjusted returns.

Drawdown Periods

Simply said, a drawdown is the "pain" period experienced by an investor between a peak (new highs) and subsequent valley (a low point before moving higher). In the table below are the fifth largest drawdowns encountered for the portfolio/asset in question.

In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio

start valley end days Drawdown
2008-05-20 2009-03-09 2009-11-16 545 -24.78%
2021-11-09 2022-10-14 2024-02-01 814 -18.78%
2020-02-21 2020-03-20 2020-06-08 108 -17.57%
2000-09-05 2002-07-23 2003-05-30 997 -13.53%
1998-07-20 1998-08-31 1998-11-23 126 -9.66%

The In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio took approximately 17 months on average to recover from a major drawdown. The longest drawdown lasted 33 months.

Underwater plot

The underwater plot shows you the drawdown periods on a chart. Whereas the performance chart usually gives you a positive viewpoint, the underwater plot gives you a pessimistic viewpoint. It helps you to visualize downtrends that occurred and how long it took for the portfolio's value to rebound to hit a new high after suffering a loss.

Other Risk Metrics

Metric In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio
Sharpe Ratio 0.95
Sortino Ratio 1.35
Adjusted Sortino (S/√2) 0.95
Calmar Ratio 0.31
Omega Ratio 1.19
Gain to Pain Ratio 0.19
Winckel Ratio 69.7
Ulcer Index 0.05
Kelly Criterion 8.66%
Skew -0.34
Kurtosis 7.72
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